As I’ve been keeping up with for the playoffs, it’s time to get my picks in for the AFC and NFC Championship games. I’ll offer analysis of the AFC game because of my familiarity with the Colts and Jets, and then just give you which way to bet for Saints/Vikes.
Ladies and gents, your weekend key to getting rich, courtesy of Bobby B:
AFC Championship
Jets (+7.5) at Colts
Over/Under 39.5
The storyline
The prevailing thought may be that the Colts now regret lying down in Week 16 against the Jets. Well, the prevailing thought is way off, on two counts.
First, any ultra-competitive NFLer would savor the opportunity to hand it to a team that ended his undefeated season a few weeks prior. The NFL’s most ultra-competitive player? Peyton Manning. Indy’s All-World quarterback clearly did not agree with Colts’ coach Jim Caldwell’s decision to remove the team’s starters in the latter stages for Indy’s Week 16 loss against Gang Green. Manning felt Indy was good enough to make a chase at 16-0, and then in the playoffs, to continue the chase at 19-0. I think Caldwell made the wrong decision by yanking the starters - granted, the Jets’ ground and pound style means a very physical game, increasing the chance at injury. However, why take the wind out of the sails of a group of guys that had fought - and I mean fought - to get to 14-0. Fact of the matter was very few of Indy’s wins were convincing up until that point - why mess with the team’s mojo.
That being said, Manning, Dallas Clark and the rest of the Colts are loving another shot at the Jets. Sure, by beating New York, they would have taken care of a team built for the postseason. However, you can bet that Manning and Co. are salivating at the opportunity of socking it to the Jets, and proving that had they played the entirety of Week 16, and then Week 17, Indy would be making a run at perfection.
Second, the Colts did not hand the Jets a win in Week 16. The widespread disrespect for the Jets’ effort in that game should make for some serious bulletin board material down in Florham Park. New York was down five points to Indy in the third quarter of that game, and as has been shown lately, New York’s style of play is to wear teams down. What’s not to say Manning wouldn’t have been blind-sided as Curtis Painter was deep in Colts territory during that game, leading to a Jets’ defensive touchdown, and with it, the lead. I think New York won that game just as much as Indianapolis lost it. For that fact, you can bet the Jets are looking forward to their trip to Indy.
Bandwagoners:
Adam Schefter. Keyshawn Johnson. Bob Glauber. Mike Ditka. Just a few of the names of the NFL analysts picking the Jets to win this weekend.
Wait, so about fifty percent of the football community is not only picking the Jets against a 7.5-point spread, but actually picking the Jets straight up?
All you hear from the Jets locker room, and analysts covering the Jets, is that New York isn’t the team entering the game under pressure - it’s the one seed, Indy. I’d argue the opposite. Indianapolis, overall a superior team, is quickly turning into the underdog on Sunday - on their field, 100 percent healthy, playing on a turf that is far more conducive to the pass game than to the run game.
The message? Don’t believe much of anything the analysts are telling you about this one.
The scoop:
I am an open Jets homer. I bleed Jets Green, was one of the few “crazy” people to predict a 10-6 campaign for New York before the season, and wear my lucky Darrelle Revis jersey every Sunday. And yes, I picked New York in Cincinnati, and then in San Diego.
Unfortunately, all the Jets did in the first two rounds of the playoffs was beat two pretenders. Cincinnati was a sub-.500 team masquerading as the winner of the toughest division in football. Remember, last season, the Bengals went 4-11-1. This year’s team wasn’t much different than last year’s. However, six conference wins - at least a couple that were close to being losses - resulted in the Bungles cruising into the postseason. As for the Chargers? Credit their 11-game winning streak to an easy schedule. They beat Dallas, and that was just about it.
Indianapolis has Peyton Manning. And Dallas Clark. And Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. And that’s just the offense. New York may have Revis to mark Wayne, but the Colts’ offensive line, combined with their playmaking attackers, are going to be too much to handle for the Jets.
Boy, oh boy, do I hope I’m wrong. But instead of making one of the most improbable runs in the Super Bowl Era to the championship, the Jets are going to fold, and despite scoring a defensive touchdown, and despite another big rush for Shonn Greene, and despite the Colts looking rusty last week against the Ravens, the AFC belongs to Indy, and they’ll cruise to the Super Bowl.
Colts 30, Jets 20
Colts (-7.5), Over 39.5
NFC Championship
The scoop:
Sorry, but Dem Saints won’t be able to match-up with the Vikings. Jared Allen, Ray Edwards, Sydney Rice and Brett Favre have played some terrific football the last few weeks. Brad Childress is proving that he is a top-tier NFL coach with his management of this team - unlike Josh McDaniels in Denver, Childress was able to ride early-season success, let his team hit cruise control for a while, and heading into the NFC Championship, Minny is fresh.
I know Reggie Bush broke out last week, but I wouldn’t expect that to carry over. He is a third-down back at best, and not even one of the NFL’s premiere players at the position. Drew Brees is a marksman, Jeremy Shockey is dangerous, and Marques Colston (from? Hofstra) is special. Unfortunately, the Saints just don’t have any presence on defense, and unless they can somehow stop Minnesota’s offense at all, the Vikings are going to waltz into a Super Bowl match-up with Peyton and the Colts.
Vikings 41, Saints 27
Vikings (+3.5), Over 53
Last week: 2-2 straight up, 2-2 vs. spread, 2-2 over/under
Playoffs: 5-3 straight up, 5-3 vs. spread, 4-4 over/under
