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21

Oct

2010-11 NBA Predictions

We’ll keep it simple: Rank each conference top to bottom with predicted W/L, play out the playoffs, name a champion. Let me know what y’all think …

Eastern Conference

1) Orlando Magic (62-20)
I know what you’re thinking. No Cleveland!? Seriously, though, the only guy in the conference that can even slow Dwight Howard is Joakim Noah. Add in Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Jameer Nelson and the rest of the sharpshooters, Orlando’s got the inside-out game down to a science. Plus, don’t forget, they can stop ANYBODY on defense. This team is a well-oiled machine; 62 wins might be conservative.

2) Miami Heat (61-21)
I’m probably the only person on the planet with the Heat here. Fact is, this team might have trouble staying healthy. There’s a lot of age on the bench, and there’s Dwyane Wade’s injury plagued-ness. Yeah, when they’re at full strength, they’ll be very tough to beat. But staying healthy isn’t as easy as it looks for these cats.

3) Chicago Bulls (53-29)
The Bulls will just get better and better and better as the season goes on. By the end of the year, Derrick Rose will be the best point guard in the NBA. With the addition of Carlos Boozer - when he heals up, and isn’t losing to high schoolers in horse - and the still-improving Noah, Chicago’s scary in the post.

4) Boston Celtics (50-32)
I expect similar things out of the Celts this year as last year. They’ll have a decent regular season, save their legs for the playoffs, and then present some people problems. Shaq’s presence scares me a bit since he’s a bit of a team killer, but Rajon Rondo is only going to get better.

5) Milwaukee Bucks (47-35)
If you like the Thunder, you’ve GOT to like the Bucks. The team is young, exciting, and can always tout the underdog card. Yeah, there’s a drop off after the Celtics, but Brandon Jennings, John Salmons and a healthy Andrew Bogut could key a first round upset.

6) Atlanta Hawks (41-41)
Following along the Hawks’ against the Heat tonight showed me two things; first, as mentioned above, that Miami’s kryptonite is injuries. Second, why is everybody sleeping on Atlanta? I think their record was a product of a weak conference last year; still, though, they’re a bonafide playoff team.

7) New York Knicks (39-43)
I’d love to say the Knicks are a true contender in the East. They’re still one or two years - more specifically, a real point guard - away, though. If they deal Gallo, Randolph, Chandler and Mozgov for Anthony? They might only win 35. I think the most exciting part of New York is their Golden State-esque core. Very athletic, high-throttle, and the shock-ability characteristic. The Knicks will look silly-good at times, and silly-bad at times. They’re the last lock for a playoff spot in the East.

8) Indiana Pacers (36-46)
Blame it on my man crush on Darren Collison or my man crush on Roy Hibbert. Maybe it’s just my attempt at rekindling some sort of Indiana / New York rivalry. I think the Pacers are on their way up, though. Danny Granger’s got some sidekicks, now, and in a top-heavy East, it could mean the Pacers sneak into the postseason.

9) Charlotte Bobcats (34-48)
Unlike Skip Bayless, I don’t believe in the Bobcats. Stephen Jackson is real good, and Charlotte’s athletic and stingy on defense, but last year was their ceiling - for now, at least. If Indiana ends up closer to 20 wins than 40 wins, as many are predicting, Charlotte, should grab the 8-seed. I have ‘em on the outside-looking-in, though.

10) Washington Wizards (32-50)
Anybody interested in a psychopath point guard that used to be elite? Once the Wizards get Gilbert Arenas off their hands, they can start thinking playoffs. Until then, they’ll make more noise off-the-court than on it.

11) Philadelphia 76ers (30-52)
What’s Evan Turner got? I’m afraid he might just get in the way of Andre Iguodala. Aren’t they each the same exact player? Philly won’t win much this year, and might end up packing up their vets and beginning the rebuilding process.

12) Cleveland Cavaliers (27-55)
I just have a feeling that the Cavs aren’t going to be TERRIBLE. Yeah, they won’t be good, but something tells me that Dan Gilbert will do everything short of playing the point to make sure Cleveland plays O.K. basketball. Also helps that the Nyets, Pistons and Raps are in the conference.

13) New Jersey Nets (24-58)
They’ll be plenty more excitement following the pursuit of Carmelo Anthony than the on-court product in Jersey. Once they get to Brooklyn, things will look up. Until then, it’s the Travis Outlaw Show!

14) Detroit Pistons (23-59)
Listen, I love watching T-Mac highlight reels on YouTube as much as the next guy. However, when he’s one of your YOUNGER players, you’re in trouble.

15) Toronto Raptors (13-69)
I’ll be tempted to watch Golden Girls instead of Knicks/Raptors games this year. This team is U-G-L-Y.

Western Conference

1) Los Angeles Lakers (61-21)
Kobe’s got to get healthy. For that reason, I think the Lake Show takes it at 75 percent during the regular season. This team is good enough to win 70, but getting the three-peat is more important. If L.A. doesn’t win the West, I’ll be shocked.

2) Oklahoma City Thunder (58-24)
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are a more lethal one-two threat than LeBron-Wade. There, I said it! Add in Jeff Green, James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Nenad Kristic … the list goes on. This team is deep, and will scare Angeles.

3) Utah Jazz (56-26)
No boozer? No problem. The Wolves handed the Jazz Al Jefferson and said, “Hey! Go win a title!” Deron Williams is the best point guard in the league - for now - and will pick n’ roll his way with Jefferson deep into the playoffs.

4) Phoenix Suns (55-27)
I know they lost Amar’e. But I’m excited about seeing Josh Childress once he gets healthy. All pundits say he is the dream point guard for a fast-paced team like the Suns. Big, crazy-athletic, and terrific court vision. Why didn’t the Knicks sign him! Phoenix will surprise a lot of people and win a lot of games.

5) Portland Trail Blazers (54-28)
I’m not a Portland believe. I think they’re overrated, and will have the same problem the Mavs have - show up in the regular season, disappear in the playoffs. Still, they’ll win more than 50.

6) Dallas Mavericks (54-28)
Dirk should’ve ran. This team is on the wrong side of 28, and on their way down. Sure, they’ll still win 50+ games, just because the talent is there. But the NBA Championship is well out of their grasps.

7) Houston Rockets (48-34)
What do you have in your office pool for the over-under on Yao Ming’s games played? If he stays healthy, pairing him with Aaron Brooks spells a playoff berth, no doubt. If he doesn’t, the Rocks will have another 40-win season.

8) San Antonio Spurs (48-34)
George Hill makes me drool, and I can’t wait to watch Thiago Splitter. This is a transition year for San Antonio, though. There will be a few chemistry issues as Tim Duncan and Tony Parker begin to realize their reign is over. Still, they’ll find a way to the playoffs.

9) Los Angeles Clippers (41-41)
Baron Davis, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, Eric Gordon, AND Blake Griffin. The Clips are a real good team. Unfortunately, the West is real deep. By the way, Griffin is a sleeper MVP candidate. Yes, I said MVP. He’s a force, and could average 20 and 12 as a rookie.

10) Denver Nuggets (41-41)
‘Melo has kidnapped this team. He’ll be hanging over Denver’s head all year, and the Nuggs will suffer as a result. Once he gets dealt, you might even see them get a little better.

11) New Orleans Hornets (38-44)
I used to love Chris Paul. Then, I saw that he’s enamored by LeBron James. That’s bad karma. Real bad. There will be times this year when you see CP3 giving 60 percent. And N’Awlins will be well outside the playoff picture as a result.

12) Sacramento Kings (35-47)
Weird how the Kings only have two good players, but they still have the feel of a decent teams. Tyreke Evans is studly, and DeMarcus Cousins looks to be on a mission to prove all of his Draft-day haters wrong.

13) Memphis Grizzlies (35-47)
Rudy Gay returns to again team up with O.J. Mayo, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The starting five in Memphis is good enough to have a shot at the postseason. Where’s the bench, though?

14) Minnesota Timberwolves (20-62)
Thank goodness for Golden State.

15) Golden State Warriors (14-68)
I’ve talked to a few people who think Golden State might contend in the West. I don’t see it. You need at least one guy that can play defense to win 20 games.

PLAYOFFS

East Round 1

(1) Orlando Magic vs. (8) Indiana Pacers
Pacers are a ways away from having a shot at eliminating the Magic. Still, it’ll be fun to watch two Herculean centers battle it out in the post. — Magic 4-0

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) New York Knicks
New York’s got no shot in this series. It’ll be AWESOME watching the the two teams spark another rivalry, a la the 1990s, but the Heat will cruise on. — Heat 4-0

(3) Chicago Bulls vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
I love the Bulls. I think they’re built to make a Finals run. The Hawks will give them trouble, though. Fortunately for Chicago, Josh Smith might start chucking. — Bulls 4-2

(4) Boston Celtics vs. (5) Milwaukee Bucks
This is a toss-up. Two completely different teams. When in doubt, you gotta take experience though, especially in the NBA. — Celtics 4-3

West Round 1

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (8) San Antonio Spurs
Not the match-up Los Angeles wants in their quest for three-peat No. 2. Still, the Lakers will manage to end the Spurs’ decade-long era. — Lakers 4-1

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Houston Rockets
How will the Thunder do in their first year as a favorite in the postseason? Round 1 shouldn’t be much of a test; Yao might not have both feet by this point. — Thunder 4-1

(3) Utah Jazz vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
Utah’s building it’s next Karl Malone - John Stockton duo. This year will be the blue print for success going forward. They’ll embarrass the Mavs in the quarters. — Jazz 4-1

(4) Phoenix Suns vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers
The only upset in the first round will be a five-seed over a four. Lame, I know. Phoenix can get here without Amar’e. Then, though, J-Rich will try to do too much. — Trail Blazers 4-2

East Semis

(1) Orlando Magic vs. (4) Boston Celtics
Boston was able to screw everything up in the East last year. Not this year. The Shaq factor will hurt ‘em against D-Wight. — Magic 4-2

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Chicago Bulls
PEACE OUT, MIAMI! The Bulls are built for the playoffs with a mixture of big men, defense and a smooth pick n’ roll offense. Miami is built for a 50-game season or the playground. — Bulls 4-2

West Semis

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers will be cake after Los Angeles has to deal with San An in the first round. Los Angeles will set up the dream West Finals match-up. — Lakers 4-0

(2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (3) Utah Jazz
The Thunder’s depth is just way too good for the Jazz. Just when Durant and Westbrook struggle in the middle of the series, Eric Maynor will come in and drop 12 quick points. — Thunder 4-2

Conference Finals

(1) Orlando Magic vs. (3) Chicago Bulls
This will be a terrific series. On paper, it looks like the Bulls built themselves with Orlando as a model - stingy defense, good shooting, and a lockdown big man defending the post. Derrick Rose vs. Jameer Nelson is the X-Factor here. Adv.: Bulls. — Bulls 4-3

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder
A rematch of last year’s series, this time in the West Finals. Can OK City make an improbable run to the promised land? I think it’s a year too soon for them. Kobe will get a shot at ring No. 6. — Lakers 4-3

NBA Finals

(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Chicago Bulls
After a pair of epic conference finals, what better match-up? Two of the most classic franchises in the league. What’s more, Chicago gets the opportunity to prevent Kobe from another title. While I love the Bulls on paper, and I hate cliches and “It was meant to be” stories, this sets up too perfectly as the series to anoint Bryant the second best player in NBA history. The Lakers get it done in the highest rated NBA Finals in a long time — Lakers 4-3