17
Apr
NBA bracketology: From Round 1 to the Finals
What’s the ONLY thing better than filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket? Filling out an NBA playoff bracket, of course!
All right, all right, maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves here. But appropriately brought up by ESPN First Take’s Jay Crawford the other day, why is it that people go crazy trying to predict the NCAA Tournament, but don’t even consider filling out an NBA playoff version?
The NBA playoffs have got it all.
Superstars (Wade, LeBron, Kobe).
Powers (the Western Conference).
Underdogs (the Bucks, Hawks and Bobcats).
So, here we go. An attempt at nailing the NBA Playoffs, from round 1 to the Finals, with series-by-series breakdowns. This will, presumably, be version one of a few attempts, as I don’t foresee myself nailing the first round - if my NCAA Tournament bracket is any indication.
Eastern Conference Round 1
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Chicago Bulls
I loved watching Derrick Rose’s performance in last year’s playoffs as much as possible. And I’d love to see Vinny Del Negro go and win the NBA Championship, and put John Paxson, who certainly seems like a bully from an outsider’s perspective, in his place.
However, LBJ has the best team in the league - one of the reasons I don’t see him leaving town in the summer - and the Cavs won’t even hiccup through this series.
- Cleveland wins, 4-0
No. 4 Boston Celtics vs. No. 5 Miami Heat
Ahh, the aging Celtics. The end of a mini-dynasty. Following in the footsteps of the Pistons, Boston is quickly falling out of the elite, and into the masses. They’ve got Ray Ray, Pierce, KG, Rajon and Perkins, though, meaning that this year isn’t dead yet.
The Heat, meanwhile, have seen a late-season surge, thanks to South Beach’s favorite Dwyane Wade. While that may work in the regular season, though, Wade won’t be able to carry his team single-handedly pass the Celts. Similar to when the LeBron show couldn’t get past the Magic alone in the playoffs last year, Wade will have to wait for another max free agent to join him in Miami before moving past the first round.
- Boston wins, 4-2
No. 3 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 6 Milwaukee Bucks
Get Andrew Bogut on the court, and I take Milwaukee in a heartbeat. Bogut is one of the league’s best big men, and seemed to take a major step forward this year. Unfortunately for Brandon Jennings and John Salmon, there won’t be a seven-footer in the post against Hotlanta.
For the Hawks, this is the end of several years-worth of building. Josh Johnson is going to bolt in the offseason, leaving the team with Josh Smith, Al Horford and Jamaal Crawford - formidable, but not elite. The run won’t end in round one, though, as Atlanta will take advantage of the Bucks’ short-handedness.
- Atlanta wins, 4-2
No. 2 Orlando Magic vs. No. 7 Charlotte Bobcats
If you’re one of the many that watches ESPN’s First Take everyday, you’re no doubt aware of Skip Bayless’ obsession with the Bobcats. He loves their defense, loves the tandem of Gerald Wallace, Raymond Felton and Steven Jackson, and thinks they’ll handle the Magic.
The biggest flaw with Bayless’ excitement? IT’S THE MAGIC. Orlando is a match-up nightmare, with big men that can shoot from three, quick guards, and the force that is Dwight Howard underneath. While Charlotte will make this closer than your typical 2 vs. 7 match-up, they certainly won’t stop Orlando.
- Orlando wins, 4-1
Western Conference Round 1
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 8 Oklahoma City Thunder
You won’t find many people that are as fond of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant as I am. They are the perfect duo, with Durant the league’s best scorer and an evolving rebounder, and Westbrook a great court general that can score and dish the rock. Thanks to their huge improvement this year, the Thunder went from afterthought to, at times, a contender for the three-seed in the West.
Unfortunately for OK City, they’re an eight-seed. That means a first round match-up against Kobe, a rejuvenated Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Artest, Farmar … yes, the deepest team in the NBA. The Thunder will continue to improve, but their playoff run won’t last long this year.
- Los Angeles wins, 4-1
No. 4 Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
K-Mart is back. Mr. Big Game Chauncey Billups is in his element - the NBA postseason. Birdman is on the big state. Nene is under the hoop. And we haven’t even mentioned superstar Carmelo Anthony. The Nuggets are really, really good.
For some reason, I just don’t trust them like a trust Deron Williams and the Jazz, though. Sure, Denver took three of the four regular seasons. And yes, Andrei Kirilenko is missing the first round. But Utah still has Okur, still has Boozer, and still has - yes, he’s worth mentioning twice - the league’s best point guard, Deron Williams. This will be the second-best opening round series - we’ll get to the best in a minute - and it will go to the Jazz.
- Utah wins, 4-3
No. 3 Phoenix Suns vs No. 6 Portland TrailBlazers
What a killer for Portland, losing Brandon Roy right before the playoffs. The team’s best scorer, leader, and evolving star would have thrived on the big stage. How good is Portland, though? Even with no Roy, you can’t count them out. There’s LaMarcus Aldridge’s two-way play, Marcus Camby’s unconscious defensive prowess and Andre Miller’s resurgence.
Still, it won’t be enough to stop the Suns. Alvin Gentry has coached a team that would handle any of Mike D’Antoni’s squads. Amare Stoudemire is playing like a man on a mission, Steve Nash looks like a 25-year-old, Grant Hill is Grant Hill, and Jason Richardson is playing well. While missing Robin Lopez will hurt, Channing Frye and Jared Dudley will fill in, and deliver a first-round win.
- Phoenix wins, 4-2
No. 2 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
Aggravated how chalk I’ve gone? No need anymore. The Mavs are good. Very, very good. Nowitzki has played as well as he ever has this year, Jason Kidd has looked solid at the point, Jason Terry is a magnificent spark off the bench, and former-Wizards Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler have championship on the mind of Dallas’ fans.
HOWEVA (cue Stephen A. Smith), Dallas drew the Spurs - a team that in no way is a seven-seed. Tony Parker is back, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan are healthy, and all of the sudden, after a rollercoaster-ish regular season, San Antonio is a legit title contender. This will be the aformentioned best series of the first round.
- San Antonio wins, 4-3
Eastern Conference Semis
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Boston Celtics
Last year may have represented the passing of the guard from Boston to Cleveland as the East’s best - although the Magic wound up winning the East - but I firmly think this will represent the beginning and end of eras. Boston will slip to a bottom-half of the East team next year, with the entire team on the decline with the exception of Rondo. And while on paper, this team still looks sharp, they just don’t bring it on the court.
The Cavs will, once again, coast through a series. The one problem could be the integration of Shaq. If I’m Mike Brown, I wish O’Neal was injured for the entirety of the playoffs. He causes Cleveland to play much different and much slower, and there will be an adjustment period. Thus, Boston will take two games, but no more.
- Cleveland wins, 4-2
No. 2 Orlando Magic vs. No. 3 Atlanta Hawks
Crazy how little love the Magic get. They started the season so poorly, and since, have been a force to be reckoned with. On top of that, they are the defending Eastern Conference champs, and have even upgraded their point guard to Jameer Nelson.
I love watching the Hawks, love seeing Crawford, Horford, Smith and Johnson click, and would love to see them make a run to the Finals. The Magic are just too good, though, and Atlanta’s run will end here.
- Orlando wins, 4-2
Western Conference Semis
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 5 Utah Jazz
The Jazz are very talented, and if Kirilenko comes back, they are one of the NBA’s best. Yet, the Lakers’ run through the Western Conference is eerily similar to Duke’s path to the Final Four. While Utah, Denver and Oklahoma City are good, I just really feel that Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix are great.
The deep, Kobe-led Lakers will continue to look like a playoff machine, and dispose of Deron Williams and the Jazz relatively easily.
- Los Angeles wins, 4-2
No. 3 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 7 San Antonio Spurs
SPOILER ALERT: THE WINNER OF THIS SERIES WILL ADVANCE TO THE NBA FINALS.
What a series this will be. The methodical, by-the-book Spurs against the high-flying, exciting, up-tempo Suns. Mr. Fundamental, Tim Duncan, against Dude Explosive, Amare Stoudemire. Tony Parker, a scoring and dime machine, against Steve Nash, a scoring and dime machine.
I’ll be tuning into every one of these seven games, on the edge of my seat, watching each team try to control the tempo of the game. This series will be epic - I’m talking Tim Duncan hitting another three-pointer to send games into overtime epic. And Phoenix fans, lucky for you, Gentry has this team primed to get over the playoff hump
- Phoenix wins, 4-3
Eastern Conference Finals
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 2 Orlando Magic
The long-awaited rematch. King James’ chance to silence the critics, and advance toward an NBA Championship. Cleveland’s supporting cast’s chance to show James that the team is good enough to be a perennial contender, and that the Antawn Jamison, Anderson Varejao and Moe Williams can be the missing pieces to James’ version of Jordan’s run with the Bulls in the 1990s.
EVERYTHING points to Cleveland winning. But they won’t. With Shaq’s handcuffing the team on offense, and his inability to handle Howard on defense, and Orlando’s depth and ability to shoot from the outside, again, the Cavs will run into their nemesis, and again, fall a series short of getting to the Finals.
- Orlando wins, 4-2
Western Conference Finals
No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 3 Phoenix Suns
You’d think I have a love affair with the Lake Show after my never-ending praises regarding how deep they are. You’d think Kobe and Phil Jackson would be able to handle J-Rich and Alvin Gentry. You’d think that the team that dominated the Western Conference from start to finish would do the same in the playoffs. And you’d think picking the suns in the postseason is crazy.
Phoenix is different, though. Robin Lopez will be back at this point to dominate the paint. As I’ve said 1,000 times, Stoudemire is quickly showing that he is one of the league’s five best - yes, five best - players. Nash is fresh, Dudley is playing his role of super sixth man off the bench, Hill brings leadership, and Richardson brings explosiveness. Finally, the Suns will get to the Finals in what will be the best series of the postseason.
- Phoenix wins, 4-3
NBA Finals
No. 2 Orlando Magic vs No. 3 Phoenix Suns
No Kobe vs. LeBron? No problem. This match-up has the make-up of a terrific NBA Finals. Each team can shoot, each team has an incredible inside presence, and each team is very, very hungry for an NBA Championship.
When looking at the match-up, you can go either way. Orlando has the experience, has the formula, and has that look of a team that a lot of people love to hate. Phoenix has the supreme talent and the hot hand, but also has the stigma of being Phoenix.
I think this is when the Suns bust that stigma, though. They’re no longer regular season superstars that don’t play defense. The defense is still lax, yes, but it isn’t five players playing on the same court, it’s a team working as a cohesive unit. When Amare comes to the Knicks - whoops, did I say that? - him and Howard will engage in plenty of regular season battles. As a treat, this will be an appetizer, on the big stage, in the NBA Finals. And at least this time, in his final series as a Sun, Stoudemire will have the last laugh. Barely.
- Phoenix wins the NBA Championship over the Orlando Magic, 4 games to 3
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