Back for the first time in a while, due largely in part to my new favorite toy: ESPN’s NFL Playoff Machine. Tool lets you plug in winners of each game, and automatically calibrates playoff situation, tiebreakers and all. Worth checking out for stat geeks.

Here’s what I got, followed by explanations:

AFC

1. Pittsburgh (13-3, currently 7-3)
2. Houston (11-5, currently 7-3)
3. New England (11-5, currently 7-3)
4. Denver (9-7, currently 5-5)
5. Baltimore (12-4, currently 7-3)
6. Jets (9-7, currently 5-5)

Buffalo (9-7, currently 5-5)
Cincinnati (9-7, currently 6-4)
Oakland (9-7, currently 6-4)

NFC

1. Green Bay (14-2, currently 11-0)
2. San Francisco (13-3, currently 9-2)
3. New Orleans (13-3, currently 7-3)
4. Dallas (11-5, currently 7-4)
5. Chicago (11-5, currently 7-3)
6. Detroit (10-6, currently 7-4)

Giants (10-6, currently 6-4)
Atlanta (10-6, currently 6-4)
Philadelphia (9-7, currently 4-6)
Tampa Bay (9-7, currently 4-6) 

As mentioned, the machine automatically figures out tiebreakers, so I can’t tell you exactly how the above ties were broken. It helped me figure out the two biggest games of the season, though:

In the AFC: Week 17: Chargers at Raiders

I have the Chargers winning this game. It’ll be Norv Turner’s last game (a win moves San Diego to a 7-9 finish), and it’s the type of game you expect an unexperienced playoff team with an overly-experienced (Read: Washed out) quarterback to lose.

If Oakland actually wins this game, they get the four seed, bumping Denver to the six seed, and the Jets to the sidelines.

In the NFC: Week 17: Lions at Packers

Same exact situation as the Jets-Bengals game two years ago. Cincinnati was resting starters, and New York obliterated them 37-zip to make the postseason. The Packers, already with a loss (courtesy of the Giants Week 13), choose to bench Aaron Rodgers and much of the starters, making for an easy win for the Lions.

Here are two other scenarios: One would be Green Bay beating the Giants, and then romping the Lions Week 17 to finish 16-0. That would kick Detroit out of the No. 6 position, and slide the Falcons in.

The other scenario: The backup Packers brigade beats the Lions after losing the Giants Week 13 to finish 15-1. Then, the Giants slide in as the No. 6 seed, kicking Detroit out.

Couple of other things to clarify …

Houston and Chicago each finishing 11-5 seems unlikely, considering their quarterback situations. Neither team has a particularly difficult schedule, though: the Texans have @ Jax (W), v. Atl (L), at Cincy (W), v. Carolina (upset L), @ Indy (W), v. Tenn (W). Chicago, meanwhile, has @ Oak (L), v KC (W), @ Den (W), v Sea (W), @ GB (L), @ Minny (W).

Indianapolis DOES get a win, though it’s not Week 17 against the Jaguars. Two weeks prior, they hold Chris Johnson in check (as every other team has), and take down Tennessee. They win the suck for Luck sweepstakes at 1-15, though, one game better than the Rams (2-14) and Vikings.

The team with the best shot at a surprise run to the postseason? Tampa Bay. Like Philly, I have them improving from 4-6 to 9-7. Unlike Philly, they aren’t a “Dream Team.” LeGarrette Blount will have a strong finish, though, aided by a pair of games against the terrible Panthers defense, and they’ll only miss the playoffs by a game.

I also have Pittsburgh and Baltimore going a combined 10-1 down the stretch. Not far-fetched, either; each team has easy schedules, and don’t need to face each other.

The Playoff Machine is definitely a fun toy, though. Worth checking out to see the playoff scenarios down the stretch.

And NO, I did NOT rig this to get the Jets in the playoffs. I was actually surprised they made it in the end. Goes to show, though, that the Denver loss could REALLY hurt them; there’s a decent chance those two will wind up with a postseason tiebreaker, which the Broncos would win.